Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev on Tuesday signed decrees recognizing independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. At three p.m. Moscow time Medvedev addressed the nation on TV saying that Georgia leadership’s aggression against Tskhinval on August 8 left no other option for Russia but to recognize the breakaway republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Other countries should follow Russia’s example, Medvedev said.
The reaction from other countries followed promptly. In fifteen minutes after the statement, Georgia’s deputy foreign minister Giga Bokeria called the move annexation of Georgian territories.
The UK was the first western nation to denounce the decision. The EU as well as Ukraine followed the UK.
Expert Online invited Russian politicians, experts, and diplomats to discuss the possible aftermath to Medvedev’s decision for this country’s relations with its neighbors, and of what fate lies ahead for the breakaway republics.
Alexei Ostrovsky, head of Russian State Duma’s CIS committee:
I think that the decision will change absolutely nothing and the worsening of relations will only last until November 5, the date of US presidential election. One should be aware of the fact that Russia’s western partners are more interested in us than we are.
Alexander Rar, expert at the German Council for foreign policy:
Ukraine and Germany will definitely become candidate NATO members at its summit in December 2008 because of Medvedev’s decision. Even though many NATO countries have been reluctant to accept Georgia, it may now pretend to be a victim of aggression and get what it wants.
We will experience a considerable worsening of relations with the US. There will not be a war, that is for sure, but restoration of ‘cold war’ is inevitable. We can also expect a gradual forcing us out of G8 group of industrialized nation. A new wave of conflict is likely after NATO’s December summit.
Konstantin Sivkov, first vice-president, Academy of Geopolitical sciences:
NATO is likely to experience discord in the near future. Even now, many countries have accepted Russia’s action in South Ossetia positively: Turkey, Spain, Italy, Czech Republic, and Slovakia. Old Europe has close links with Russia and it benefits from the geopolitical alliance with Russia.
If Russia breaks its relations with NATO, NATO contingent in Afghanistan will be cut off its supply and support. They will have nothing but to run away from there.
As far as Georgia is concerned, Georgia will be in hysterics. There will be a series of tough political statements; it may even break its diplomatic relations with Russia.
Evgeniya Novikova, Vera Kholmogorova
Photo: AP
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