The disagreements between TNK-BP's shareholders are playing into the hands of Gazprom, which may end up becoming the controlling shareholder of the company
The formal cause of the conflict between the shareholders (BP owns half of the company; Mikhail Fridman's Alfa Group, Viktor Vekselberg's Renova, and Leonard Blavatnik's Access Industries own the other half) are disagreements over the company's development strategy and dividend policy. TNK-BP's president and CEO, Robert Dudley, admitted there were differences on May 26. He said that the British side is interested in concentrating on the exploration and development of fields, especially oil refining in Russia. Russian shareholders are more concerned with expansion abroad and investment in international projects.
The following day, the Russian owners demanded that the British side remove Dudley from the post of president, but their demand was rejected. The Russians have since claimed that Dudley is managing the company solely in the interests of the British, and in demonstration did not attend a board of directors meeting, depriving it of quorum. On May 30, Jean-Luc Vermeulen, an independent director and auditor at TNK-BP, resigned. Another 30% of staff has left the Moscow office.
According to a source close to BP, TNK's desire to take operational control of the company is behind these actions. This version has a right to exist, but it is perhaps not the true cause of events.
"The problem is that the Russian shareholders are investment companies aimed at getting a quick profit in a wide range of economic sectors, while BP is purely an oil company," says Ekaterina Kravchenko, an analyst at the investment company Broker Credit Service. "The fields owned by TNK-BP are old and depleted. To further develop them millions of dollars of long-term investment is needed, but the return may not be until 2010-2012. The company will not yield a rapid return working exclusively in Russia. This will not please Russian investors who want a quick result."
The question arises: Why have these contradictions surfaced now? The answer is simple: According to a TNK-BP shareholders' agreement, none of them could sell their shares before the end of 2007. Since the beginning of 2008, the purchase and sale of their shares has been permitted. Thus, a third-party shareholder could appear. Judging by the current political climate, it could be a state-controlled Russian company. "In situations of conflict the emergence of a 'white knight' is highly probable, most likely, state-owned," suggests Stanislav Avgust, an analyst at the investment company Finam Management.
One can also assume the shareholder structure may change from the words of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who, in an interview with the French newspaper Le Monde on Saturday, made it clear that an owner should finally emerge at TNK-BP with a controlling stake.
According to the experts, the talk is now about the possible arrival of a new shareholder. There are several potential configurations: a state-controlled company with a 51% stake and TNK or BP with 49%; or, a state-owned company with a 100% stake. According to both experts, the state company is most likely to be Gazprom.
In any case, the conflict between TNK-BP's shareholders is advantageous to Gazprom. Experts point out that Gazprom never purchases companies at great expense, and the problems in the TNK-BP could lower its value.
Yekaterina Shokhina
Photo: ITAR-TASS
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