There is a new scandal in Europe. The Polish President Lech Kaczynski has said that his country will lift its veto on beginning negotiations on a new agreement between the EU and Russia after Ukraine and Georgia are admitted to NATO’s Membership Action Plan (MAP).
The president’s ultimatum is somewhat ambiguous. On the one hand, it is clearly directed against Russia; on the other, it affects France and Germany, both of which refused to endorse Kiev and Tbilisi as candidates for NATO.
President Kaczynski holds a tough position in relations with Russia, while the new Prime Minister Donald Tusk supports a rapprochement with Moscow. During the election campaign he identified improving Polish-Russian relations as one of the main goals of future political activities.
A Scandal with a Continuation
Russia’s Foreign Affairs Ministry reacted very weakly. The European Commission was not informed of Poland’s moves. NATO declined to comment.
Russia’s State Duma was much more emotional. Russian State Duma deputy Alexey Ostrovsky, head of the Committee for CIS Affairs and Relations with Compatriots, went further. He threatened to take the Crimea away from Ukraine if it joins the alliance. In his opinion, NATO prospects for Kiev and Tbilisi are a highly abstract thing: “The issue of Georgia and Ukraine joining the alliance will directly depend on the position of Russia, on the work that we undertake in former Soviet republics, in these states, with our partners in Western Europe and the United States.”
Ukraine could not keep quiet. Ukraine’s ex-foreign minister Borys Tarasyuk reproached Moscow for “separatist attacks” and said that if Russia tries to take away the Crimea, Kiev may initiate a return to Ukraine of Russian areas that were formerly part of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, in particular Belgorod Region.
Georgia has thanked Poland for its support. The Georgian Foreign Minister David Bakradze called Kaczynski’s statement “an example of supporting new democracies”.
The scandal caused by the Polish president grew and expanded. The matter took a serious turn. It was at this point that Kaczynski decided to take back his words. Journalists, he said, “wrongly conveyed” his views on the situation surrounding the accession of Georgia and Ukraine to MAP. “I deny that I linked the issue of the action plan for the accession to NATO of Georgia and Ukraine with EU negotiations on a new partnership and cooperation agreement with Russia,” he said.
Poland’s Hidden Motive
Lech Kaczynski’s hackneyed move to blame press for everything has not defused the situation. The feeling of resentment remains.
Jerzy Haschinski, head of the international department of the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita, believes that the addressee of the remarks made by the president is not Russia, but Germany and France. Moreover, the French President Nicolas Sarkozy will soon arrive in Warsaw for talks. Kaczynski is preparing the ground for his visit. Warsaw is looking after its own security on the eastern borders.
The Outcome Prospects
The question of Georgia and Ukraine being admitted to MAP will most likely be decided in December. But, for Poland to finally decide to lift its veto, firm positive assurances are needed from Germany and France on the two former Soviet republics.
Marcin Wojciechowski, a political columnist for Poland’s Gazeta Wyborcza, is confident that the issue of the veto will be resolved more quickly and simply at EU-Russia talks: it will be lifted, “although, perhaps, the Polish government will try to bargain with Russia, but this is not a fundamental question”.
The problem is that, according to the constitution, the issue of lifting a veto is decided exclusively by the government, as it determines the foreign policy of the state. The president does not have the right to decide the matter.
Therefore, whatever Lech Kaczynski says is his personal opinion. The Prime Minister Donald Tusk will steer the situation. It would to disadvantageous to Poland to aggravate relations with Russia, particularly on the eve of another round of difficult negotiations about monitoring at missile defense facilities by the Russian military. Russia wants a constant presence and to keep it’s finger on the pulse; Poland, however, is opposed to a permanent Russian presence. But Washington has offered Moscow close cooperation in the field of missile defense, and Warsaw will have to agree.
Evgeniya Novikova
Photo: Reuters
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