Presidential candidate Dmitry Medvedev gave another speech today at the assembly of Russia's Lawyers Union. Even though he will surely win, he has to campaign. And it was interesting to listen, because previously, Medvedev was only commenting on 'national projects' and the need to have more children
In countries where democracy is understood in a more conventional way, a rightist candidate will never promise a social paradise, nor a leftist one call for cutting taxes. In Russia with its 'sovereign democracy' concept, there are no such restrictions. A ruling party here can vote for pro-liberal laws, struggle for more social allowances, fight against nationalism and at the same time develop a nationalist wing of its own.
Authorities in Russia still cannot manifest themselves and reveal their intentions in speeches, (that is why the art of 'reading in between the lines' is still very popular). They use words to: a. justify something they have already done; b. embarrass the audience. Medvedev, who is not the President yet, did not need any words, in fact. Keeping silence, in Putin's manner, would be the most eloquent thing, but as the campaign goes on, Medevedev does have to speak.
Everybody knows he has already won. Mdvedev is supported by the current President, the ruling party, TV and business elite, and all the administrative resources help him. But he still has to fight for victory.
More importantly, Medvedev is going to win because of Putin's support, and he owes everything he has now and will have in the future to Putin. But a couple of months later, the situation will be totally different. Everybody knows Putin has changed our country. But although no official speaks out about it, Putin's method of ruling seem to gradually become inefficient, and the presentiment of a political crisis makes the Kremlin change its style.
Now it looks like Putin was not ruling the country, it was more like waging a war. His tenure did begin with a war, but in fact even peaceful activities were often perceived and described as battles. And at the last Duma election - Putin was like a general, leading an army to battlefield under countless flags, with crowds of supporters, and Napoleon-like President cursing 'motherland's enemies'.
And now Medvedev's task is to change the style. That is why he prefers to talk about democratic ideals, the need to stop corruption. There are no storm-troopers with blood-coloured flags, no halls full of fans, no crazy teenagers. He makes his first appearance at a state-approved NGO forum, and second - to his fellow lawyers. And he is not talking to those who will vote for him, but with those who say they don't mind him being elected.
Medvedev is not the candidate that can make all power groups happy, and for some groups in the Kremlin his 'successor' status was not a positive signal. It's OK with them as long as Putin is President, but what will happen next? Will there be a new war? How high are the risks to lose power? Property?
The first stage of Medvedev's campaign seems to be an attempt to answer these questions. When he said that Russia needs decades of peace, he did not mean any external invaders. He wants to leave the militant style behind, and hopes that officials will abstain from the invisible civil war that happens when their boss is replaced with a new one.
But this is the biggest issue: will Medvedev be able to deal with his friends, who must be already dreaming of official posts? It is not clear even if Medvedev asks himself the same kind of question.
Ivan Davydov
Photo: ITAR-TASS
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